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反过来想,总是反过来想-汇添富投资洞察-添富资讯-汇添富基金管理股份有限公司

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汇添富投资洞察阅读

专户投资经理
姚宗辉

学历:硕士

从业经历:中南大学管理学硕士,曾在申万巴黎基金管理,马可波罗至真资产管理,申银万国证券研究所,上海航空公司任职。2010年5月加入汇添富基金,担任专户投资经理。

姚宗辉:反过来想,总是反过来想2020年04月20日

touzidebenzhishirenzhizaishijianzhanghezhongdebianxian。mianduimeitianlaibaojiadeshichangxiansheng,touzizhedeneixinnanmianhuiqiqifufu,womenzhidao,shichangxianshengsuirandabufenshijianwenheerlixing,danhuishibushixianrukongjuyutanlan,shifoulihuishichangbaojiabingcaiquxiangyingxingdong,qujueyutouzizheduiqiyeneizaijiazhidepanduan。

 

raner,jiazhipanduanduoqilu,yibuliushenrukengzhong。xifangyoujuyanyuyue,“wozhixiangzhidaojianglaiwohuisizaishenmedifang,zheiyangwojiubuquneierle”。zaibenwenzhong,bizhefenxianglejigetouzi“cuotiben”dedianxinganli,yuduzhezhujungongmian。

 

(一)缺乏每股自由现金流折现的底层思维将是致命的

 

zhengrubafeitesuoshuo,“woshiyigebucuodetouzijia,yinweiwoshiyigebucuodeqiyejia;woshiyigebucuodeqiyejia,yinweiwoshiyigebucuodetouzijia”。2004nian,yamaxunshizhipaihuaizai200yimeiyuanfujinshi,likaihuaerjiedeyouxiutouzijia、gongsichuangshirenbeizuosizainianduzhigudongxinzhongxiedao:“womenzuizhongdecaiwuzhibiao,womenzuixiangdachengdezhangqimubiao,jiushimeiguziyouxianjinliu。womenweishenmebuxiangdaduoshurenneiyang,shouxianguanzhuyingliheyinglizengzhang?daanhenjiandan,yinglibingbunengzhijiezhuanhuaweixianjinliu,ergupiaojiazhishiweilaixianjinliudexianzhi,erbujinjinshiweilaiyinglidexianzhi。weilaiyinglishimeiguweilaixianjinliudezuchengbufen——danshibingfeiqiweiyidezhongyaozuchengbufen。yingyunziben、zibenzhichuheguquanxishiyehenzhongyao”。beizuosiduiyuqiyejiazhiderenzhi,wuyishizaixiechuzheifenggudongxin15nianzhihou,qudongyamaxunshizhizengzhang45beizhi9100yimeiyuandezhuyaoyuandonglizhiyi。

 

ruguowomenduiqiyejiazhihemeiguziyouxianjinliuzhijiandeduiyingguanxiquefashenrugusuiderenzhi,qijieguojiangshizainanxingde。changjiandelizishi,lirunbiaozhongkuaisuzengzhangdeshouruyingli,henkenengzhishiyuanzizichanfuzhaibiaozhongyinzanglejudahuaizhangfengxiandeyingshouzhangkuan;xianjinliuliangbiaozhongdafuzengjiadezibenkaizhi,zeyoukenengchengweizichanfuzhaibiaozhongbuzhiyiwendepotonglantie;hulveneizaijiazhiheguquanxishidejieguo,shenzhiyidudaozhiagushichangchuxianlelingrenchengmujieshedeyijiadingzengxianxiang;er2018nianbaofadeshangshigongsiguquanzhiyaweiji,zeyujiduanqingkuangxiadagudongduiyingyunzibenderongyuguanlibuzutuobuleganxi,jinerfanshishangshigongsi、yinfaleshichangdefanshenxing。

 

(二)对公司所处行业特征的分析只见树木不见森林

 

womenyibancongshichangkongjian、fazhanjieduan、jingzhenggeju、zhengcehuanjingdengfangmianlaizonghefenxishangshigongsisuochudexingyetezheng。shichangkongjianjuedingchixuxing,duiyingdcfmoxingzhongnyouduozhang;fazhanjieduanjuedingchengzhangxing,duiyingdcfmoxingzhongzengsugdegaodi;jingzhenggejuduiyingyinglixing,eryinglishidcfmoxingzhongziyouxianjinliudezhongyaozuchengbufenzhiyi;zhengcehuanjingzedaibiaobodongxing,jiangduishangshuyinsuchanshengzongheyingxiang。jianeryanzhi,xingyetezhengzuizhongjiangfanyingdaolongtougongsiziyouxianjinliudezhangqi、kechixuzengzhangshang,yigejiandandehouyanshi,ruguowomenzhongdianguanzhudezhibiaochixubudayuqi,shuomingxuduifenxiguochengzhongxinjiayijianshi。

 

ruguowomenba“zhangzhangdepo”lianghuaweishichangkongjiannhezengzhangxielvg,yibanqingkuangxia,shichangduindepanduanbuhuiyoumingxiandepiancha,danduiyugderenzhiquecunzaixianzhuchayi。zuoguodcfmoxingdetouzizhedouzhidao,gdejieduanheshuzhijiashedeqingweibianhua,kenengdaozhimoxingshuchujieguodeqianchawanbie,yizhiyubufenfenxishizaijishangshigongsiguzhishiyinguodaozhi——xianjidingmubiaojiage,zaidiaozhengshipeig。ruhezhengqueshibiegongsisuochudefazhanjieduanhezengsu,kaoyandeshitouzizhederenzhihedongchali。

 

tongyangde,ruguowomenba“houhoudexue”lianghuaweimaolilv、jinglilv、roe、roicdengjutizhibiao,jingzhenggejucha、quefahuchenghedegongsixianranwufazaishangshuzhibiaoshangjiaochuhaodechengjidan。jinguanzhushichangkongjianhechengzhangsudu,erhushixingyejingzhenggeju,yejiuchengweiletouzi“cuotiben”zhongdedianxingyicuotizhiyi:xingyekongjianda、zengsukuaijinguannengyidingchengdushanghuajiejingzheng,dankenengdaozhishangyoumaichanzidegongyingshangchuyuqiangshidiwei,tongshigaozengzhanghedijinrubileiyejiangxiyindaliangxinjinruzhe,jiliedejingzhengxingtouzijiangshishichangcanyuzhutixianruzhuwangxiaoyingdenizhaozhizhong,congerdaozhiyinglinenglidixia、wufashixianzhengdejingyingxingxianjinliu,zuizhongshanghaidaogudongliyi。zheiyangdelizizaifengdian、guangfu、xinnengyuandianchidengdenglingyubushengmeiju。

 

(三)对市场在极端情况下出现的多周期锁模现象缺乏认知

 

dangxuduowuguanliandeguochengzifadesuodingbicidejiezou,bingchuangzaochuyigehenqiangdejiazongyundongshi,jiuchanshenglesuomoxianxiang,ruguowomenzhiguanzhuqizhongdeyigehuoshugeyinsu,jiuhuibukebimiandixianru“zaishoulinazhetiechuiderenkanlai,shijiejiuxiangyikedingzi”dejiongjing。

 

xianran,bujinshizhouqigucunzaimingxiandezhouqi,jibianshiyibanyiyishangwendingzengzhangdexiaofeiguyecunzaizhouqi,zhishiyinweizhouqidekuadugengzhang、bodongfuduqingweierbuyichajue。yiaguxiaofeipindianxingbankuaibaijiuweili,ruguowomenjincongbaobiaohuisuhejibenmianjiaoduguancha,sihuhennanjieshi2018nianlongtougongsigujiasuochuxiandejuliebodong。jinguanyouzhigongsiyinglibodongzhouqixiangduijiaoruo,danzhengrugeleiemuzai《congmingtouzizhe》zhongsuoshuo,“gujiabaodie,kenengbingbushibiaomingrenmenduigongsiweilaidezhangqizengzhangchanshenglehuaiyi,xiangfan,tafanyinglerenmenduiyijia(ji:gushiduizheixieqiyejiweikanhaodeqianjingsuozuodegaogu)quefaxinxin”。zonghekaolv2018nianshichanghuanjingxiadehuobizhengcezhouqi(quganggantuishengwufengxianshouyilv)、zichanjiagezhouqi(fanxiangcaifuxiaoyingduixiaofeideyizhi)、shichangfengxianpianhaozhouqi(guodufengxianguibiyazhiguzhi)、cunhuozhouqi(jingxiaoshangyuqibodongsuodaozhidebaobiaobuwendingxing)dengyinsu,jianliqiduizhouqisuochuweizhideqingxirenzhi,jiangyouzhuyuwomenzaishichangjiagemingxianpianlineizaijiazhishi,zhanshengrenxingguyoudetanlanhekongju,yiheshidejiagegoumaibingchiyougaozhiliangzhengquan,congerdafutigaotouzihuoshengdegailv。

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